COVID-19 Bulletin: February 11

Supply

Oil prices were flat Thursday as markets weighed the possibility of more aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes. Crude futures were higher in mid-morning trading, with WTI up 1.8% at $91.49/bbl and Brent up 1.7% at $92.94/bbl. U.S. natural gas was 1.3% lower at $3.91/MMBtu. 
OPEC forecast global oil demand might rise even more steeply this year than initially expected on rebounding economic growth. Price volatility also could grow, the International Energy Agency warned, as OPEC repeatedly falls short of production targets each month.
U.S. Permian Basin production hit nearly 5 million bpd in January and is expected to grow by an annual rate of 600,000 bpd for the next several years, executives at Houston-based Plains All American Pipeline predict. 
A cyberattack hit oil terminals across Europe last week, disrupting processing operations. 
U.S. gas prices have nearly doubled since the start of the pandemic.
China’s state-owned PetroChina will invest $5.33 billion to expand petrochemical capacity while cutting refined fuel production, part of a policy of driving export growth while reducing fuel output as domestic demand is set to peak. 
St. Louis-based Peabody Energy, the world’s largest private sector coal company, nearly tripled revenue expectations last quarter and said that its 2022 production was already committed in contracts. 
France plans to build at least six nuclear reactors over the next several decades to help reach carbon neutrality by 2050, aided by a long-term goal of 100 GW of solar power and 40 GW of wind energy. 
Spain’s largest LNG distributor will split into two entities, one focused on infrastructure and one on power generation, in a bid to accelerate growth and renewable projects. 
Indian officials announced ambitious plans to eliminate the use of diesel fuel in the agriculture industry within two years. 

Supply Chain

An off-season wildfire broke out in Orange County, California, yesterday, prompting evacuations in Laguna Beach and Aliso Viejo. 
In the latest news from Canada, where truckers are protesting COVID-19 restrictions:
• Toyota, Ford and GM are scaling back production due to parts shortages caused by continued blockades of Detroit’s Ambassador Bridge. This morning, protestors opened one lane on the bridge in the hope of dissuading their possible forceful removal. 
• Ontario officials are warning of imminent police action to resume the flow of traded goods from Ontario to Detroit, the U.S.-Canada border’s largest gateway. 
• Trucker protests cropped up on a key trade lane between Manitoba and North Dakota yesterday, shutting down traffic flows. 
• Border blockades are costing Canada as much as $500 million per day in lost trade, economists say, which could push up inflation and lead to negative economic growth. 
• The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is warning law enforcement that a convoy of truckers protesting COVID-19 restrictions could make its way across the U.S., potentially blocking roads in several major cities. 
The number of ships waiting outside Southern California ports fell to 78 vessels this week, the lowest level since last November. 
The Port of Savannah handled 479,000 TEUs in January, the 18th consecutive monthly record.
The National Retail Federation predicts U.S. imports will stabilize during the first half of this year, potentially giving relief to backlogged supply chains. 
Cargo delays are rising at Singapore’s Changi Airport due to more COVID-19 cases among handlers. 
Flush with cash, the world’s biggest shipping lines are buying their own fleets of cargo planes as they add air services for large clients willing to pay extra to bypass ocean-based congestion. 
Charter rates for very large crude carriers dropped sharply into negative territory the past week as high oil prices affect consumption. 
The new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework will likely focus less on reducing tariffs and more on harmonizing issues including digital trade, supply chains and green technology, although more details of the plan are yet to be announced by the U.S. administration. 
Loads posted on the truckload spot market rose 37.4% in January from a year earlier. 
Over two-thirds of U.S. clothing companies surveyed plan to expand nearshoring mostly to Central America, institutional adviser McKinsey & Co. said. 

The latest niche casualty of supply disruption: girl-scout cookies. 
Super Bowl parties could be 15% more expensive to host as labor shortages drive up the per-pound price of chicken wings by 30 cents from last year. 
Pervasive drought in the U.S. High Plains has led to the lowest supplies of hay in a decade and the smallest cattle herds since 2016. 
Amazon dropped its mask mandate for fully vaccinated warehouse workers and eliminated paid COVID-19 sick leave for unvaccinated employees. 
Industrial robot sales rose last year to 39,708 units at a value of roughly $2 billion, a 14% increase over the previous high set in 2017.
Battery-powered electric trucks could reach the long-haul trucking market as early as 2027, Navistar’s CEO predicts.
Amazon Air, a cargo line exclusively for Amazon packages, launched new daily service to Omaha, Nebraska, as the company aims to build more connections nationwide. 

Domestic Markets

The U.S. reported 147,416 new COVID-19 infections and 3,179 virus fatalities Thursday. 
Los Angeles County, the nation’s most populous, posted 103 COVID-19 fatalities yesterday, the highest single-day in nearly a year. 
New York City’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate deadline is today, with thousands of municipal jobs on the line. 
Washington state fined a food distribution warehouse $285,000 for violating COVID-19 rules. 
Hawaii is relaxing its remaining pandemic restrictions in a bid to restore travel and kickstart the state’s economy.
U.S. health officials are cautioning against a rising number of states dropping pandemic restrictions, saying moving too quickly could prolong the virus’ spread. The news comes as school districts across the country roll back mask and testing requirements.
A federal court ruling placed another roadblock to the White House’s plan to mandate COVID-19 vaccines for some 3.5 million federal employees. 
The U.S. Navy discharged 240 service members this week for failing to get vaccinated against COVID-19. 
COVID-19 patients are at higher risk of developing heart disease within a year of infection, new research suggests. 
The American Hospital Association is calling for funding to improve hospital security amid an uptick in violence and harassment directed at healthcare workers. 
Pfizer expects to rake in more than $100 billion across the globe this year from sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and antiviral treatments.

General Motors said it would raise production of electric trucks and SUVs by sixfold over initial targets for the next two years. The automaker also is expected to soon resume production of its recalled Bolt EV model. 
In the latest inflation news:
• Pressure is growing on the Federal Reserve to impose larger interest rate increases at a quicker pace. 
• U.S. households face roughly $250 in additional costs per month due to inflation, affecting everything from utilities to food to vehicles and everyday items. 
• Inflation is the highest in mountain states including Arizona, Colorado and Idaho, with prices rising up to 9% just over the past month in some cities. 
• The Federal Reserve will begin stress-testing financial institutions for a scenario in which markets seize up and unemployment jumps above 10%. 
• The freedom of remote working helped boost relocations by 20% last year versus 2020, with Vermont and North Dakota as the most popular states but most people relocating to sunbelt states. 
U.S. foreclosures rose 29% last month and were more than double the same time last year after a federal moratorium on evictions expired. 
The average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate is up to 3.69%, the highest in two years. Meanwhile, median prices for single-family homes were higher last quarter versus a year ago in 181 of 183 U.S. metro areas. 
Manhattan rental prices rose an annual 23% in January to an average of $3,467, near the all-time high. Across the nation, rents were roughly 4% higher last year than in 2020. 
Sales of $10 million homes doubled last year, primarily concentrated in Los Angeles. 
Higher product prices offset rising supply chain costs for consumer giants Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, leading to strong quarterly results. 
January sales at industrial supplier Fastenal surged over 20% on rising demand for safety products. 
Used-car prices rose 40.5% in January from a year ago, according to the Labor Department, a large contributor to the U.S.’s 40-year-high inflation rate. 
Uber expects rising demand for third-party rides and food deliveries to push the firm into cash-flow positive territory by the end of the year, which would be a company first. 
California is the first state to register more than 1 million plug-in electric vehicles, with nearly a quarter of them registered last year. 
Ford announced plans to develop at least five new battery-electric Lincoln models by 2026. 
Sherwin-Williams announced plans to invest $300 million to expand a North Carolina manufacturing facility, double its workforce and bolster in-house resin production. 

International Markets

Russia reported nearly 200,000 COVID-19 infections yesterday, a record. 
South Korea posted a record 54,112 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, as authorities began asking people with mild symptoms to stay home and reduce the strain on hospitals. 
In its worst ever surge of COVID-19, Hong Kong could see up to 28,000 new cases and 1,000 fatalities per day by June, as officials contemplate strict lockdowns reminiscent of China’s zero-COVID strategy. 
New Zealand saw a record 334 new COVID-19 infections Thursday. 
Germany is considering scrapping all remaining pandemic restrictions by March 20. 
Paris and Brussels took preemptive action and banned large-scale blockades against COVID-19 restrictions, hoping to prevent protests like those on the U.S.-Canadian border. 
The COVID-19 “stealth” subvariant of Omicron now accounts for 100% of new cases in South Africa, researchers say. 
Australia tightened its definition for “fully vaccinated” to include three shots of a COVID-19 vaccine. 
Large parts of the world have fallen short of the World Health Organization’s year-end COVID-19 vaccine targets, new data shows:

India scrapped its mandatory seven-day quarantine period for incoming travelers in favor of a self-monitoring system, a move that could boost lagging travel to the nation. 
The Philippines reopened to international tourists for the first time in two years on Thursday, hoping to boost its flagging economy. 
China became the largest importer of Japanese food products last year on surging shipments of sake, whisky and scallops, while Japanese officials say the nation depends heavily on China for at least 1,000 popular import items. 
Peruvian officials lifted a key interest rate to 3.5% yesterday to curb inflation, with more banks across Central America planning similar steps. 
Consumer prices in Taiwan rose 2.4% last month, the highest rate in 13 years, with wage stagnation making the effects worse than it would appear. 
Hyundai hopes online electric-vehicle offerings will spur sales when it returns to the Japanese market for the first time in 12 years this May. 

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