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Supply
Oil fell almost 2% Monday on fears of looming recessions hitting demand.
In mid-morning trading today, WTI futures were down 1.5% at $89.73/bbl, Brent was down 1.4% at $94.82/bbl, and U.S. natural gas was up 0.3% at $6.46/MMBtu.
At $3.919 a gallon, the average U.S. gasoline price is up 3% since OPEC+ announced its November production cuts last week.
The average American’s heating bill is expected to rise 17.2% this winter as natural gas supply tightens.
Some U.S. energy experts say domestic natural gas supply could exceed demand next year as growth in LNG exports slow awaiting needed infrastructure improvements.
European natural gas prices fell to three-month lows on Monday thanks to mild weather and healthy import volumes.
Saudi Aramco plans to maintain volumes to Asia despite OPEC’s planned output cuts next month, a move that could mitigate their impact.
Iraqi officials indicated they may break with OPEC’s move to slash output in November due to pressing needs for cash.
Some Iranian petrochemical workers went on strike Monday amid a wave of civil unrest in the nation.
A final investment decision on the world’s longest LNG pipeline from Nigeria to Southern Europe won’t come until next year, officials say.
More oil and gas news related to the war in Europe:
Europe will continue deliberating about a cap on gas prices over the coming weeks, a lingering issue that contrasts with the bloc’s swift approval of other measures, such as windfall taxes and curbs on electricity use.
Germany will rapidly approve a $93 billion plan to pay consumer and business gas bills this winter and limit prices starting in March.
Germany reversed course and began supporting the joint EU issuance of debt to cushion the blow of rising energy costs this winter.
Britain’s grid operator warned it may have to impose three-hour power cuts this winter to preserve energy.
Europe’s complicated new sanctions, including a price-cap on Russian oil, could end up shutting in large amounts of the nation’s crude, experts say. Russia has already lost 60% of seaborne crude sales to Europe since February.
U.S. container imports will fall 9.4% this month and 4% in the second half of the year, according to the Global Port Tracker.
Deutsche Post will hike its full-year guidance in the coming weeks after easing logistics snarls helped it move more e-commerce shipments in the third quarter.
Global air cargo tonnage was down 12% the past two weeks from a year ago, according to WorldACD.
This year, online holiday sales in the U.S. are set to rise at their slowest pace since 2015 as inflation bites consumers.
U.S. retailers are already starting Black Friday deals in a bid to clear out excess inventories that have piled up for months.
Shares of Rivian Automotive fell sharply on Monday after the automaker recalled nearly all its vehicles due to a steering issue, throwing next year’s production targets into doubt.
Chinese electric-vehicle battery-maker CATL, the world’s largest, could see profits surge by 200% in the third quarter.
Amazon is ending field tests of its Scout autonomous delivery robot, which failed to meet customer expectations, forcing the reassignment of the business unit’s 400 employees.
Peel Ports Group says it is considering layoffs at the Port of Liverpool site hit by dockworker strikes.
The London Metal Exchange is floating a ban on Russian metal, a move that could harm the country’s huge aluminum industry and create problems for international supply chains.
Container ship activity at Russia’s Far East ports grew sharply in the third quarter.
Domestic Markets
The U.S. reported 21,876 new COVID-19 infections and 117 virus fatalities Monday. Yesterday, the seven-day average for new cases fell below 40,000 for the first time in six months.
Nearly all Americans can stop wearing masks indoors as less than 1% of the country lives in an area with “high” COVID-19 spread, according to the CDC.
Los Angeles reported its first case of the BA.2.75.2 variant of COVID-19 that is evading immunity in Asia and Europe.
Webpages for some large U.S. airports were briefly shut down Monday due to alleged cyberattacks.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is closely aligned on raising its benchmark interest rate to around 4.5% by March, according to reports.
JPMorgan Chase’s chief executive says the U.S. and global economy will likely tip into a recession by the middle of next year.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell below expectations to 3.5% in September, matching July’s 29-month low in a sign that overall labor market conditions remain tight.
Third-quarter results for big U.S. businesses are poised to soften due to inflationary pressures, despite many being able to boost prices this year with limited pushback from consumers.
California-based diagnostics firm Bio-Rad Laboratories is in talks to merge with Qiagen NV in what would be one of the biggest mergers in the healthcare testing domain at over $10 billion.
Ben Bernanke, the former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve who oversaw its response to the 2008 financial crisis, won a Nobel Prize in economics along with two others.
COVID-19 cases are rising in Germany following the nation’s seven-day Oktoberfest celebration.
Japan is reinstating visa-free travel for dozens of countries today, ending some of the world’s strictest border controls of the pandemic.
A third of the global economy will see at least two straight quarters of contraction this year and next as the world tips into recession, the IMF and World Bank say.
Investor morale in the euro zone has fallen for a third month and is now at its lowest point since May 2020.
The Bank of England warned of “material risk” to the nation’s financial markets after it was forced to further intervene to prop up British sterling today. The crises of confidence following the governments ill-fated plan for unfunded tax cuts spread to the mortgage market, where interest rates topped 6% for the first time in more than a decade.
U.K. unemployment fell to 3.5% in the three months through August, the lowest in five decades, as nearly 22% of eligible workers sit out of the active workforce, including a record number suffering long-term illness.
Shares in China’s largest tech firms plummeted Monday as the U.S.’s new export control measures spooked investors.
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