COVID-19 Bulletin: December 30

Supply

Oil prices rose slightly yesterday on news of larger-than-expected draws in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles. Futures were mixed in late morning trading, with WTI up 0.2% at $76.74/bbl and Brent down 0.1% at $79.14/bbl.
U.S. natural gas prices edged lower despite forecasts of regional colder weather and higher heating demand. Futures were 5.3% lower in morning trading at $3.65/MMBtu. 
Mexico will suspend crude oil exports in two years in a bid to focus on domestic self-sufficiency, starting with a 50% reduction to 435,000 bpd of exports next year. 
Saudi Arabia is expected to slash prices for all export grades to Asia by more than $1 per barrel in February, reversing December’s 60¢ increase to the lowest price in four months.   
U.S. exports of petroleum and crude oil products topped imports by 120,000 bpd in the first half of 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

Benchmark European gas prices are up about 400% this year and could remain elevated into early 2023, as German regulators continue to stall boosted flows from Russia. Prices have steadied on higher LNG imports from the U.S. 
Equipment, leasing and other input costs rose to an all-time high this quarter for drillers in the largest U.S. oil fields, the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve said. 
Brazil’s Petrobras is stepping up re-injections of CO2 into its oil fields as part of long-term emissions reduction goals. 
Ukraine is doubling down on nuclear power with plans for $335 million in investments in uranium mining and processing sites over the next five years. 
Our most recent list of force majeure and allocation announcements from suppliers is here.

Supply Chain

Greek operator Euroseas signed three-year charter extensions for two boxships at $40,000 per day, nearly triple the current charter rate of $15,500. 
The U.S. deficit in merchandise trade widened to a record $97.8 billion in November on a sharp rise in imports, concentrated in industrial supplies and consumer goods. 
Small and midsize retailers are increasingly buying up logistics companies for in-house operations, signaling their continued difficulties finding delivery capacity in a tight market. Smaller stopgap measures are also being used more frequently, such as storing goods in idle truck trailers. 
Quick turnarounds on returns have helped U.S. retailers restock depleted inventories, spurring rising investment in return automation and warehouse systems. 
Shares of the U.S.’s biggest egg producer fell 8% Wednesday on disappointing quarterly results caused by rising feed and labor costs. 
Much of 2021’s commodity price volatility can be traced to extreme and wildly changing weather in several global regions. 
Analysts project lower grain prices in 2022 as a record planting season brings supply up to demand, although volatility could result from extreme weather and geopolitical tensions. 
Global crude steel production fell 9.9% year over year in November, keeping prices unusually high compared to historical levels despite cooling pressures the past several months. U.S. cold-rolled coil closed last week at $2,503 per short ton, more than double the $1,018 rate from December 2019.
More than half of states are set to raise their minimum wage next year in response to continued labor shortages and inflationary pressures. 
Computer chip maker Micron Technology is warning customers of delayed shipments over a facility shutdown caused by China’s latest COVID-19 outbreak.  
Electric vehicle maker Rivian is pushing back deliveries of some electric pickups and SUVs to 2023 due to battery component shortages in high-trim models. 
The U.S.’s first human-less and fully autonomous heavy duty truck trip was completed on an 80-mile route in Arizona. 

Domestic Markets

The U.S. reported 489,267 new COVID-19 infections and 2,184 virus fatalities Wednesday. Despite record-high daily case counts, total hospitalizations are roughly half their previous peaks from last January. 
Unvaccinated Americans are 17 times more likely to go the hospital for COVID-19 than vaccinated peers, the CDC said. 
The U.S.’s seven-day average for COVID-19 fatalities fell 7% last week to about 1,100. The CDC is predicting another 44,000 fatalities over the next month. 
COVID-19 hospitalizations among U.S. children are just shy of early September peaks and rising.   
Emergency departments in Washington, D.C. are overwhelmed with new COVID-19 patients, doctors say, with admittances rising three times faster than any state. 
Ohio deployed more than 1,200 national guard troops to northeastern hospitals to help with depleted staffing amid record COVID-19 hospitalizations. Cincinnati’s mayor declared a state of emergency as COVID-19 infections crippled the city’s fire department.  
Georgia called out 200 national guard members to help state hospitals and testing sites with a surge of COVID-19 patients. 
New York reported more than 67,000 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, smashing its previous record, as hospitalizations steadily increase. Officials launched more than a dozen new state testing sites Wednesday. 
COVID-19 hospitalizations in California are up nearly 25% since Dec. 20. 
New Jersey added more than 20,000 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, a record, with virus hospitalizations up 250% the past month. A Walmart in the state began turning away customers after 90 infections were reported among store employees. 
Florida reported a record 46,923 new COVID-19 infections Tuesday, bringing total cases since the start of the pandemic past 4 million. Schools in Miami-Dade County are considering reimposing mask mandates and other restrictions.  
COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas rose 11% over the past 24 hours, with Austin returning to its second highest virus alert level with stricter recommendations for social gatherings and mask-wearing. 
Hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients in Chicago are at the highest level since last December. Starting Monday, the city will require everyone over age 5 to be vaccinated to enter most indoor public places. 
The White House will complete its order for 500 million at-home COVID-19 tests by next week for distribution to Americans free of charge.
The CDC is soon expected to release a decision on approving COVID-19 booster shots for 12- to 15-year-olds. 
A booster shot of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine is 85% effective against the Omicron variant, according to a study in South Africa. 
State and local leaders are moving away from raw COVID-19 infection numbers as the basis for new pandemic measures, instead focusing on increasing testing options and vaccine uptake. 
Four Smithsonian museums in Washington, D.C., are temporarily closing due to rising COVID-19 cases among staff. 
Duke University will require all staff and faculty to provide proof of a COVID-19 booster shot by Feb. 1 or be terminated. 
The World Junior hockey tournament has been shut down midway through due to rising COVID-19 cases among players. 
U.S. travelers faced a fifth day of more than 1,000 flight cancellations yesterday as snowstorms across the Midwest and Pacific Northwest clogged airports, exacerbating disruption from COVID-19 outbreaks among staff and crews.  
Carnival Cruise Line will stick to its planned itineraries despite rising scrutiny from lawmakers over continued COVID-19 outbreaks during sailings. Mexico has established itself as a haven for ships docking with COVID-19 infections. 
Hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake in escalating patent disputes between COVID-19 vaccine inventors. 
Roughly three out of every five pregnant women in the U.S. have zero protection against COVID-19, new data shows. 
Roughly 22% of U.S. gym locations have closed permanently during the pandemic, with rising cases of the Omicron variant threatening even more closures. 
Foot traffic at U.S. discount retailers rose by double-digit percentages last weekend compared to a year ago, on par with data showing record holiday sales this year. 
First-time jobless claims last week fell to 198,000, lower than expected and near a half-century low, as continuing claims fell to pre-pandemic levels.  
Economists from Moody’s Analytics and Oxford Economics expect continued economic growth in 2022 but cut their projections from 4.4% to 4.0% due to the rise of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.  
U.S. pending home sales unexpectedly fell in November on limited housing stock and continued high prices, new data shows. 
Italy’s Prysmian Group, the world’s largest cable maker, will spend $226 million on a new plant in Massachusetts for submarine power transmission cables. 

International Markets

The seven-day average for new global COVID-19 cases is approaching 1 million per day, with the largest rises in the U.S., Europe and Australia.
The U.K. reported 183,037 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, 50,000 higher than the previous day’s record on a backlog of holiday data. More than 90% of new cases are the Omicron variant, while officials have so far resisted more restrictions. 
Ireland recorded 16,428 new COVID-19 infections yesterday, smashing its prior single day record by nearly 50%. 
France posted more than 208,000 new COVID-19 cases yesterday, a European record, as infections with the Omicron variant double every three days. Officials reimposed an outdoor mask policy in Paris. 
Spain reported more than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, the second record in as many days. Following the U.S.’s lead, the nation reduced quarantine periods for infected people by three days. 
Italy was just shy of 100,000 new COVID-19 infections yesterday, a record. The nation’s world-famous restaurant industry is withering under new quarantine rules during the normally busy holiday season. 
Switzerland is reporting record COVID-19 case counts. 
The Netherlands will require incoming U.S. visitors to quarantine for up to 10 days upon arrival. 
Greece banned music at entertainment venues in a bid to halt surging COVID-19 cases. 
Fearing more COVID-19 protocols would cripple its economy, Israel removed quarantine requirements for fully vaccinated people who are exposed to COVID-19 and test negative. 
Australia reported more than 18,000 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, a record.
Chinese officials are reaffirming the nation’s strict policy of eradicating every COVID-19 outbreak as new infections in the northwestern city of Xi’an continue to number in the hundreds. 
The World Health Organization renewed calls for wealthy countries to prioritize getting vaccine shots to low-income nations over doling out boosters domestically, as nearly half of the group’s member nations missed a target of vaccinating 40% of their populations by the end of the year. 
India approved two new homegrown COVID-19 vaccines as well as Merck’s at-home antiviral pill. 
Hong Kong’s main airline is cutting passenger flights in January due to tighter COVID-19 quarantine policies announced earlier this week. 
Russia’s service sector shrank for the third consecutive month in November as business confidence slipped to an annual low. 
The pandemic has reversed westward migration across Europe for the first time in decades, with nations like Bulgaria reporting an influx of people largely due to strong job opportunities. 
Swedish battery maker Northvolt created a lithium-ion battery cell for use in electric vehicles, the first by a European company in a market dominated by Asian manufacturers. 
Starting Jan. 1, large public European firms will be required to disclose how much of their operations align with a new emissions-reduction classification system developed by the bloc’s governing body, serving the dual purpose of encouraging sustainability alongside favorable investor status. 

At M. Holland

M. Holland will be closed tomorrow for the New Year’s holiday. We wish all a safe and happy new year!
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