COVID-19 Bulletin: September 17

Good Afternoon,

Supply

With Hurricane Sally largely bypassing Gulf Coast refineries, crude prices eased in early trading today, with the WTI at $39.92/bbl and Brent at $42.05/bbl.  
The natural gas price was lower at $2.20/MMBtu. 
A drop in demand for oil from emerging market countries, which offer the greatest growth potential, is cause for concern for oil producers. 
Leading coal producer Murray Energy emerged from bankruptcy as American Consolidated Natural Resources.
Despite government policy support, the coal industry continues to shrink, with renewable energy outpacing coal for energy production last year for the first time since 1880.
BHP, the world’s largest mining company, has frozen salaries of its executive team as the pandemic has closed mines and required costly safety measures.
Austrian packaging company and recycler Alpla Group is building a 15,000-ton post-consumer HDPE recycling facility in Toluca, Mexico, as it expands its global footprint.

Supply Chain

The U.S. Post Office closed post offices in California, Oregon and Washington due to wildfires and hazardous air conditions.
New York City is under a haze of smoke from still-raging fires in Western states. Smoke from the wildfires has been detected as far away as Europe. 
The apple crop in Washington, which produces 65% of the nation’s apple supply, will be down 10% due to fire and wind damage.
Hurricane Sally weakened to a tropical storm as it inundated Gulf coastal areas with torrential rain and flooding.
Tropical storm Teddy strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane in the open Atlantic and is expected to grow into a major hurricane.
East Coast ports are gaining market share over West Coast ports due to growing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The container shipping industry is showing surprising resilience, with many competitors poised to emerge from the pandemic disruption stronger than before.
Although material supplies are tight due to force majeures, we’re seeing many warehouses at storage capacity with operators opening satellite/overflow warehouses.
We’re seeing railcar capacity challenges in the Charlotte, North Carolina, area.
Trucking capacity remains tight throughout the U.S., and spot pricing remains elevated.
Clients are advised to provide expanded lead times on orders to help ensure delivery dates will be met.

Markets

COVID-19 infections in the U.S. eased to 38,410 yesterday with 1,014 reported fatalities.
COVID-19 infection rates are trending higher in 31 states this week.
There were more than 860,000 new jobless claims last week, down slightly from the prior week. Another 659,000 contractors and gig workers filed claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program.
The head of the CDC said there may be an effective vaccine by year end, but it would not be available for broad distribution until the third quarter of 2021.
Operation Warp Speed officials announced plans for the rapid distribution of an eventual vaccine, which will be free to all Americans.
The Federal Reserve expressed greater optimism about the economy after its monthly meeting yesterday, raising its outlook for GDP contraction this year from 6.5% to 3.7% and projecting that unemployment will fall to 5.5% by the end of 2021.
The central bank plans to keep interest rates near zero for the next three years.
Half of U.S. manufacturers say they’re having trouble staffing the factory floor due to childcare issues impacting employees, threatening the manufacturing recovery.
While JPMorgan is pressing employees to return to offices, Deutsche Bank extended work-from-home protocols for U.S. workers until July 2021.
New York City’s mayor imposed a week of furloughs on himself and his staff to help address budget deficits caused by the pandemic.
Southwest Airlines will continue leaving middle seats open through November as it pares its flight schedule for the third quarter, when it expects to lose $17 million a day.
Ford said its new electric F-150 truck, due to be built in 2022, will be more powerful and have half the cost of ownership of the gasoline-powered version.
GM is developing a wireless battery that conveys energy through antennae and could be used across a variety of electric vehicles without costly connections and wiring harnesses.
Delayed movie releases are creating havoc and financial pain for toy companies.
Fourteen Big Ten colleges voted unanimously to resume playing football on October 23 after canceling the fall season in August, putting pressure on the PAC 12 conference to follow suit.
The Cleveland Clinic announced the creation of the Center for Global and Emerging Pathogens Research, which is dedicated to the research of future pathogens and their treatment and cure.
The move to remote work has led to increases in both the frequency and damage of cybersecurity attacks, with the severity of ransomware invasions up 47% during the pandemic.

International

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its outlook for the global economy from a 5% contraction this year to a 4.5% contraction and projected 5% growth in 2021.

In a study of the recovery rates of 75 economies, Latin American countries occupied 18 of the 25 bottom rankings.
Global COVID-19 cases are approaching 30 million.

India recorded nearly 98,000 COVID-19 infections yesterday, a daily record while total cases in India surpassed 5 million, just 11 days after hitting the 4 million mark. 
In Italy, Spain and the U.K., COVID-19 deaths per capita are now running higher than in the U.S. as Europe braces for a fall resurgence of the virus.
Eastern European countries, early stars in fighting the pandemic, relaxed restrictions too soon and are now facing a resurgence of COVID-19.
European auto sales tumbled 18.9% in August, dashing hopes for a steady industry recovery that appeared to be underway.
German automotive supplier Mahle is cutting 7,600 jobs due to the downturn caused by the pandemic.
South Africa is reopening borders and lifting pandemic restrictions after gaining control of its COVID-19 epidemic.
The Bank of England held interest rates at a record low 0.1% yesterday and said it may consider negative rates in the future.
Customs and Border Protection reopened its Global Entry offices on September 8 after a six-month hiatus, but appointments are hard to schedule because of a huge backlog of applications.
Europe’s Circular Economy for Flexible Packaging consortium is recommending that packaging design shift from multilayer structures to mono-materials to ease recyclability.

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