Week of January 4, 2016
- Crude prices fell slightly vs. the prior week but rallied on Thursday on speculation that Iran could take longer to ramp up production following the removal of sanctions.
- IHS has been conservative in forecasting lower prices.
- Comments last week from a reporter for Canada’s Financial Post magazine highlighted predictions for 2016:
- “Goldman Sachs analysts are…predicting prices could touch US $20 a barrel in 2016 — and potentially stay low for the next 15 years.”“The fact is that oil and gas forecasting is a crap shoot, that too many people become invested in their own views to see contrarian trends, and that reality changes all the time.”
- “That’s why everyone missed the current crash, and why predictions that oil is down and out should be regarded with skepticism.”
- In May, 2008, Goldman Sachs analysts were forecasting that oil would reach $200 a barrel within two years